Severe Weather Outlook - May 16, 2025
Today's a gnarly one, y'all. Up to a Moderate (4 out of 5!) Risk of severe weather exists, with the bullseye over the heart of the Ohio River Valley, including the St Louis, Louisville, & Cincinnati metros… but some kinda risk includes the entire Mid-Atlantic, the entire Lower Midwest, the entire upland South, & even into NE TX.
Let's talk 1-2-3: Area 1 (black) is a clustered line of storms remaining from yesterday's complex that crossed the Midwest & Great Lakes, currently over West Central NY state & North Central to NW PA. It's currently non-severe, but certain cells could still get a bit feisty & become marginally severe. This complex will drift SE-ward into the DMV zone, impacting Northern VA + MD + DC + clipping South Jersey on its way ejecting from SE PA, as the morning goes on. By mid-afternoon, this is all out in the ocean.
Area 2 (purple) is a clustered line of storms currently draped from E central KY to NW & W KY, down through the MO/KY/TN/AR quad-state area, stopping just short of Little Rock. These have higher severe potential, up to & including brief spin up tornadoes, but mainly it's a high wind & large hail threat. It'll move E across KY, TN, & clip far Southern WV and arrive at the dotted purple line by mid-afternoon, impacting the heart of North Carolina & surrounding areas. It'll proceed to move out over the ocean by late evening.
& now, the Big Kahuna - Area 3 (yellow). this afternoon, expect a broken line of storms to develop along the solid yellow line, extending from SW WI along the IA/IL border, down thru the heart of Missouri (right over Columbia down to Springfield), SE OK, & north Central TX. It'll then move East, bringing with it an all-modes hazard, including the potential for intense tornadoes. This'll likely be a gnarly one, y'all.
Expect it to reach the dashed line (heart of WV to the VA/KY line to Nashville to N Central & Central MS) by around midnight tonight, and to the squiggly line by daybreak tomorrow (Saturday)… by which point we'll be seeing another day of severe weather brewing…
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